Risk Scores
16 min read20 December 2025Updated 21 August 2026

Medically reviewed by Dr. Achyut Balla, General Physician (MBBS)

FRAX Score: Understanding Your Fracture Risk

Osteoporosis causes 1.5 million fractures yearly in India. The FRAX calculator predicts your 10-year risk — here's how to interpret it.

Active seniors exercising for bone health and fracture prevention

The Fall That Changes Everything

Before calculating a frax score or worrying about bone density, most people don't realize how fragile their bones have become. Take Mrs. Lakshmi was 68, a retired teacher, active and independent. She was walking to her morning kitty party when she stumbled on an uneven pavement. She put her hand out to break the fall — a reflexive action we've all done a hundred times.

Her wrist shattered.

Not a crack. Not a hairline fracture. Her radius bone collapsed like it was made of chalk. Surgery followed, then weeks of physiotherapy, and even now, two years later, she can't make rotis properly because of limited wrist movement.

Her bone density had been tested 5 years earlier. The report showed osteopenia — early bone loss. It was filed away without action. No calcium prescribed, no vitamin D checked, no follow-up arranged.

Mrs. Lakshmi's fracture was preventable. She just needed someone to take her bone health seriously before the fall.

The Silent Disease

Osteoporosis is called a "silent disease" because bone loss happens without symptoms. You don't feel your bones getting weaker. There's no pain, no warning sign. The first indication is often a fracture — a fracture from a fall that shouldn't break a bone, or worse, a vertebra that collapses while you're simply lifting something.

The statistics are sobering:

  • India has 50 million people with osteoporosis — one of the highest numbers in the world

  • One in three women and one in eight men over 50 will have an osteoporotic fracture

  • Hip fractures carry a 20-30% mortality rate in elderly Indians within the first year

  • Survivors often lose independence — 40% can't walk independently afterwards

This isn't about living longer. It's about living better — maintaining independence, mobility, and quality of life as we age.

FRAX: Predicting Fractures Before They Happen

FRAX (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) is a WHO-developed algorithm that calculates your 10-year probability of having a major osteoporotic fracture. It takes into account clinical risk factors — with or without a bone density scan — to predict your risk.

Think of it as a weather forecast for your bones. It doesn't tell you for certain that you'll fracture, but it tells you how likely it is — allowing you to take shelter before the storm.

What FRAX Predicts

  • 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, spine, wrist, or shoulder)

  • 10-year probability of hip fracture specifically (the most devastating type)

The Risk Factors That Matter

FRAX uses several clinical factors, each with a biological reason behind it:

Risk Factor

Why It Matters

How Much It Increases Risk

Age

Bone remodeling becomes less efficient with age

Risk doubles every 7-8 years after 50

Sex

Women lose bone rapidly after menopause

Women have 4x higher risk than men

Low body weight

Less mechanical load on bones, less bone built

BMI below 19 significantly increases risk

Previous fracture

Prior fracture indicates already-weakened bone

Doubles the risk of future fractures

Parent hip fracture

Genetic component to bone strength

Increases risk by 50-100%

Current smoking

Directly toxic to bone cells, impairs vitamin D

Increases risk by 20-30%

Glucocorticoids

Steroids rapidly destroy bone

Most potent modifiable risk factor

Rheumatoid arthritis

Inflammation damages bone independent of steroids

1.5x increased risk

Alcohol (3+ units/day)

Directly toxic to osteoblasts (bone-building cells)

Significantly increased risk

FRAX+ (2024 Update) — New Factors

The updated FRAX tool now includes additional risk factors:

  • Falls history: Falling frequently means more opportunities for fracture

  • Recent fracture (within 2 years): The period right after a fracture is highest risk

  • Type 2 diabetes: Diabetic bone is structurally weaker despite normal density

  • Lumbar spine T-score: Spine bone density now factored in

Understanding Your FRAX Score

10-Year Major Osteoporotic Fracture Risk

FRAX Score

Risk Category

What It Means

Recommendation

Below 10%

Low

Less than 1 in 10 chance in 10 years

Lifestyle measures, reassess in 5 years

10-20%

Moderate

1-2 in 10 chance in 10 years

Get DEXA if not done, optimize lifestyle

Above 20%

High

More than 1 in 5 chance in 10 years

Medication strongly recommended

10-Year Hip Fracture Risk

FRAX Score

Risk Category

Recommendation

Below 3%

Low

Continue preventive measures

3% and above

High

Treatment recommended regardless of DEXA

The 3% Hip Fracture Threshold:

A 3% 10-year hip fracture risk is the treatment threshold in many countries. This isn't arbitrary — at this risk level, the benefit of treatment clearly outweighs the risks. If your hip fracture risk is 3% or higher, medication should be strongly considered.

DEXA Scan: The Gold Standard

While FRAX can be calculated without a bone density scan, adding DEXA results makes it more accurate.

What Is a DEXA Scan?

DEXA (Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) measures bone mineral density at the hip and spine — the sites most prone to osteoporotic fractures. It's quick (10 minutes), painless, and uses minimal radiation.

Understanding T-Scores

Your T-score compares your bone density to a healthy 30-year-old adult of the same sex:

T-Score

Diagnosis

What It Means

Above -1.0

Normal

Bone density within healthy range

-1.0 to -2.5

Osteopenia

Lower than normal — "pre-osteoporosis"

Below -2.5

Osteoporosis

Significantly reduced bone density

Below -2.5 with fracture

Severe Osteoporosis

Established disease with fracture history

Who Should Get a DEXA Scan?

  • All women at 65 and all men at 70

  • Postmenopausal women under 65 with risk factors

  • Anyone with a fragility fracture (fracture from minimal trauma)

  • Anyone on long-term steroids (more than 3 months)

  • Anyone with conditions causing secondary osteoporosis

Why Indians Are at Special Risk

Several factors make osteoporosis particularly concerning for Indians:

Vitamin D Deficiency

Despite abundant sunshine, 70-90% of Indians are vitamin D deficient. Cultural practices (avoiding sun exposure, covering skin), skin melanin content, and air pollution all contribute. Without adequate vitamin D, calcium absorption is impaired, and bones weaken.

Lower Peak Bone Mass

Indian children and young adults tend to have lower peak bone mass compared to Western populations. Since bone loss begins from your peak, starting lower means hitting the danger zone earlier.

Vegetarian Diet Challenges

While a vegetarian diet can be bone-healthy, it often falls short in protein and vitamin D. Many vegetarians also avoid dairy, eliminating the primary calcium source.

Early Menopause

Indian women reach menopause 4-5 years earlier than Western women on average. This means earlier estrogen loss and earlier onset of accelerated bone loss.

Genetic Factors

Certain genetic variants affecting vitamin D metabolism and bone structure are more common in South Asian populations.

The Fracture You Must Prevent: Hip Fracture

Not all fractures are equal. Hip fractures are in a category of their own.

Mr. Krishnamurthy was 74, a retired bank manager who prided himself on his independence. He lived alone, did his own shopping, and walked 3 km every morning. One evening, he tripped on his bathroom mat.

His hip fractured.

Surgery was scheduled for the next day, but he developed a hospital-acquired pneumonia while waiting. The surgery was delayed by a week. Post-surgery, he developed a blood clot. Three weeks in hospital turned into two months. He never walked independently again. He moved in with his son. Six months later, he passed away from complications.

This isn't an unusual story. Hip fractures are devastating:

  • 20-30% mortality within one year

  • 50% never regain their previous level of function

  • 25% require long-term care

  • Most never live independently again

This is why preventing hip fractures specifically is so critical — and why FRAX calculates hip fracture risk separately.

Building and Maintaining Bone

Here's what actually works for bone health:

Weight-Bearing Exercise

Your bones respond to mechanical stress by getting stronger. But not all exercise is equal for bones:

Best for bones:

  • Walking, jogging, stair climbing

  • Resistance training (weights, resistance bands)

  • Dancing

  • Sports with jumping or impact

Good but not bone-building:

  • Swimming (great for fitness, but no bone stimulus)

  • Cycling (same — excellent cardio, minimal bone impact)

Calcium — From Food First

Target: 1000-1200 mg per day (more if postmenopausal or over 70)

Food

Calcium (mg per serving)

Curd (200g)

300

Milk (1 glass)

250

Paneer (100g)

480

Ragi (100g)

350

Sesame seeds (30g)

280

Rajma (cooked, 1 cup)

80

Methi leaves (100g)

395

If you can't get enough from food, supplements are reasonable — but don't exceed 500 mg per dose (absorption drops at higher doses).

Vitamin D — The Essential Cofactor

Without adequate vitamin D, you only absorb 10-15% of dietary calcium. With sufficient vitamin D, you absorb 30-40%.

Target levels: 30-60 ng/mL (75-150 nmol/L)

Most Indians need supplementation. Common regimens:

  • 60,000 IU weekly for 8 weeks (loading dose if deficient)

  • 60,000 IU monthly or 2000 IU daily (maintenance)

Protein — The Forgotten Factor

Bone isn't just calcium — it's 50% protein by volume. Adequate protein intake (1.0-1.2 g/kg body weight) is essential for bone health and muscle strength (which prevents falls).

Fall Prevention

Most fractures happen because of falls. Preventing falls is as important as strengthening bones:

  • Remove loose rugs and cables at home

  • Ensure adequate lighting, especially at night

  • Install grab bars in bathrooms

  • Review medications that cause dizziness

  • Check vision regularly

  • Consider balance exercises (yoga, tai chi)

When Medication Is Needed

Lifestyle modifications aren't always enough. Here's when medications are recommended:

  • FRAX 10-year major fracture risk above 20%

  • FRAX 10-year hip fracture risk above 3%

  • T-score of -2.5 or below at hip or spine

  • T-score between -1.0 and -2.5 PLUS a fragility fracture

  • Long-term steroid use (more than 3 months)

The Medications That Work

Medication Class

Examples

How They Work

Notes

Bisphosphonates

Alendronate, Risedronate, Zoledronic acid

Slow bone breakdown

First-line treatment; taken weekly/monthly/yearly

Denosumab

Prolia

Blocks bone-resorbing cells

Injection every 6 months; must not miss doses

Teriparatide

Forteo

Stimulates new bone formation

For severe osteoporosis; daily injection for 2 years

Romosozumab

Evenity

Both builds bone and slows breakdown

Newest option; monthly injection for 1 year

The Bisphosphonate Reality:

Many patients fear bisphosphonates because of rare side effects like jaw osteonecrosis. The perspective matters:

  • Risk of jaw osteonecrosis: 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000

  • Risk of hip fracture if untreated: 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 over 10 years

The risk of NOT treating far exceeds the risk of treatment in those who need it.

Secondary Osteoporosis: The Hidden Causes

Sometimes osteoporosis isn't just about aging — there's an underlying cause:

Condition

How It Affects Bones

Hyperthyroidism

Excess thyroid hormone accelerates bone loss

Hyperparathyroidism

High PTH literally leeches calcium from bones

Celiac disease

Malabsorption of calcium and vitamin D

Chronic kidney disease

Disrupts vitamin D activation and calcium balance

Type 1 diabetes

Bone quality is impaired

Inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammation + malabsorption + often steroid use

Anorexia nervosa

Malnutrition + low estrogen

Chronic steroid use

Most potent drug-induced cause

If you have osteoporosis at a young age, or if it's severe despite no obvious risk factors, your doctor should investigate for secondary causes.

Monitoring and Follow-Up

If You're on Treatment

  • DEXA scan every 2 years to assess response

  • Vitamin D level check annually

  • Monitor for medication side effects

If You Have Osteopenia

  • FRAX calculation to determine actual fracture risk

  • DEXA scan every 2-3 years to assess progression

  • Aggressive lifestyle optimization

  • Consider medication if risk crosses threshold

Back to Mrs. Lakshmi

After her wrist fracture, Mrs. Lakshmi finally had a proper bone health evaluation. Her DEXA showed a T-score of -3.1 at the hip — severe osteoporosis. Her FRAX calculated a 35% 10-year major fracture risk and an 8% hip fracture risk.

She was started on zoledronic acid (once-yearly infusion), her vitamin D was optimized (she was at 12 ng/mL — severely deficient), and calcium was added. A home safety assessment was done and she started balance exercises.

Two years later, her bone density has improved by 5%. More importantly, she hasn't had another fracture. She's back at her kitty parties — just more careful about uneven pavements.

"I wish someone had explained this to me five years ago," she reflects. "Before I broke my wrist."

That's the point. Bone health shouldn't be an afterthought. By the time a fracture happens, you're playing catch-up.

Your Bone Health Action Plan

For Everyone Over 50:

  • Know your risk: Calculate your FRAX score (online at sheffield.ac.uk/FRAX)

  • Check vitamin D: Get tested, supplement if low (most Indians are)

  • Optimize calcium: 1000-1200 mg daily from food + supplements if needed

  • Load your bones: Weight-bearing exercise most days

  • Prevent falls: Home safety, balance training, vision checks

  • Consider DEXA: If you have risk factors or are over 65 (women) or 70 (men)

Your Situation

What To Do

Postmenopausal woman with no risk factors

Calculate FRAX, get DEXA at 65

Anyone on steroids more than 3 months

DEXA now, likely need medication

History of fragility fracture

DEXA now, likely need medication

Parent with hip fracture

Earlier screening, FRAX calculation

Low body weight (BMI under 19)

Consider earlier screening


Track your bone health with ExaHealth. Upload your DEXA scan results and monitor your T-scores over time — because preventing a fracture is infinitely better than recovering from one.

Frequently asked questions

What is the FRAX score?

FRAX (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) is a WHO-developed algorithm that calculates your individual 10-year probability of suffering a major osteoporotic fracture, such as a hip, spine, wrist, or shoulder fracture.

What does a T-score of -2.5 mean in a DEXA scan?

A T-score of -2.5 or below indicates a diagnosis of osteoporosis, which means you have significantly reduced bone density compared to a healthy 30-year-old adult.

Why is the 3% hip fracture risk threshold important?

The 3% 10-year hip fracture risk is widely considered a treatment threshold. At this risk level or higher, the clinical benefits of medical intervention significantly outweigh the potential risks, and treatment is strongly recommended.

Why is vitamin D important for bone health?

Vitamin D is an essential cofactor for calcium absorption. Without sufficient levels, your body can only absorb 10-15% of dietary calcium; with adequate levels, that capacity increases to 30-40%.

What if I have osteopenia?

Osteopenia is defined by a T-score between -1.0 and -2.5, indicating lower than normal bone density. Management typically involves calculating your FRAX score to determine fracture risk, lifestyle optimization, and periodic monitoring with DEXA scans every 2-3 years.

FRAX
osteoporosis
bone health
fracture risk
DEXA
calcium
vitamin D

Track Your Health Journey

Upload your lab reports and let ExaHealth organize your health data across 14 categories. Get personalized summaries based on your age, life stage, and health history.